Hanlon's Razor in the AEC Industry

Engineering Echelons

Hey, it’s Collin. Welcome to Engineering Echelons, a newsletter full of ideas and insights to help engineers excel at management.

Here’s what I’ve got for you this week.

  • New and noteworthy news

  • A management perspective to consider

  • Leadership insights to delve into

  • And more…

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Alright, let’s get into it.

Noteworthy Headlines

3Q2025 Civil Infrastructure Construction Index (FMI)

Highlights:

  • About 52% of firms reported higher project backlog than in the same quarter last year.

  • Each sector’s 36-month confidence index is above 50

RTO for promotions (LinkedIn News)

Highlights:

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Management Perspective

Hanlon’s Razor states: Do not attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by neglect. In other words, the world isn’t out to get you.

People do things all the time without considering how it will impact others. That doesn’t mean they want to inflict harm, they are just ignorant about the knock-on effects of their decision and who it impacts.

This is important to consider in everyday personal interactions; it’s also an effective model for understanding interactions between groups of people, especially in a business setting.

Much of society relies upon the alignment of goals and incentives between different people in different organizations. The AEC industry is one of the best examples of this. Every project requires the alliance of many specialties from various companies to design and build a building. The owner, architects, interior designers, engineers, landscape architects, and contractors collaborate to produce a building that functions how it’s supposed to, is aesthetically pleasing, and within budget. When the project is over, the alliance disbands and new allegiances form for different projects.

Designing and constructing buildings are complex endeavors that carry a high price tag and liability. Each party is incentivized to reduce their level of liability; this is oftentimes accomplished by shifting it to other parties.

Without Hanlon’s Razor, this exercise of shifting liability could easily devolve into a tit for tat war that undermines the entire project.

Hanlon’s Razor encourages you to assume positive (or neutral) intent. Not only does this change your mindset, but it can quite literally change the other person’s behavior due to the Pygmalion Effect.

But is it perfect? Of course not.

It’s merely a mental model that gets probabilities on your side. When ignorance or neglect are just as reasonable explanations as malice, then ignorance or malice are much more likely to be the reason behind a certain behavior.

Discretion is required. There are real instances of deliberate malice. When Hanlon’s Razor is indiscriminately employed, you risk falling prey to those bad actors.

Here’s the takeaway:

Hanlon’s Razor is important when various parties come together to fulfill a common purpose. It becomes vital when those parties come from different perspectives with different incentives, and stakes are high. Teach your team about this mental model and encourage its use to help improve collaboration and overall performance.

Management Insights

Jack Dorsey on details:

“Make every detail perfect and limit the number of details to perfect.”

Elon Musk on hiring:

“When hiring, look for people with the right attitude. Skills can be taught. Attitude changes require a brain transplant.”

Arthur Schopenhauer on internalizing knowledge:

“You may accumulate a vast amount of knowledge, but it will be of far less value to you than a much smaller amount if you have not thought it over for yourself; because only through ordering what you know by comparing every truth with every other truth can you take complete possession of your knowledge and get it into your power.”

Management Resource

The Next Conversation by Jefferson Fisher (Amazon)

This is a longer resource (an entire book) but I just finished reading it and I believe it’s indispensable for leaders. Communication is one of the most important skills for a leader to develop and this book is one way in which to hone your skills.

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Looking forward to hearing from you. See you next time.

Collin

Partners

Rowdee
Wheeler Investment Group